SAM DARNOLD'S RESURGENCE- VIKINGS 2025 DECISION

The Minnesota Vikings are 14-3 and, in the playoffs, and a lot of that can be attributed to the resurgence of journeyman QB Sam Darnold. The former third overall pick is only 27 years old but has had quite a journey since his debut in 2018 with the New York Jets. The hope was the USC standout would turn around the fortunes of New York but after a couple rough seasons he was eventually traded to the Carolina Panthers for a couple draft picks thinking a change of scenery would help Darnold’s career. Unfortunately, that was not the case and was released before being picked up by the San Francisco 49ers and learning from QB guru Kyle Shanahan before and eventually landing this season with HC Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota. 

While Darnold was signed to be the team’s starting QB, the Vikings doubled down at the position by drafting Michigan’s JJ McCarthy with the plan of him sitting his rookie season and learning the team’s offense. Little did the coaching staff know that Darnold not only would have a good season but exceed everyone’s expectations finishing top 5 in passing yards and touchdowns and leading the Vikings back to the playoffs. With the Vikings in the playoffs and a legitimate shot at making a run, the front office will have one of the biggest decisions of any team this offseason- should they extend Sam Darnold. 

Before GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and his team make a big financial commitment to their resurgent QB they must consider a couple scenarios. The first scenario encompasses what is their plan should Darnold leave in free agency which likely goes back to whether they believe McCarthy is ready. The first-round pick hasn't played a down of meaningful football and is still recovering from season-ending surgery so if they plan on McCarthy taking over in 2025, they need to be 100% sure he is their guy moving forward. 

The other scenario in consideration is what would it cost to re-sign Darnold. There aren’t many recent situations that can be comparisons besides most recently the return of Baker Mayfield from potential bust to star QB in Tampa Bay. After a fantastic season with the Buccaneers, the team rewarded Mayfield with a 3-year, $100 million dollar contract cementing him as the Buccaneers starter for the foreseeable future. While the Vikings could certainly make it work cap space wise, they must confirm that not only he is unequivocally their ‘guy’ for the future but also what to do with McCarthy. Not many teams draft a top in the 10-12 picks only to trade them a year later and I don't think the Vikings plan on doing so unless a QB needy team feels like McCarthy is perfect for them and offers fair compensation. 

If I was the Vikings GM and had to make the decision today, I would re-sign Darnold. It is very difficult to win games in the NFL and for him to lead the Vikings to 14-3 in his first season with O’Connell how can you not re-sign him? He is just entering the prime of his career and it seems like his teammates love him so why not continue that momentum into next season. Sure, the Vikings could re-sign Darnold to a huge, yet fair, contract and it could backfire, but what if he leaves free agency and McCarthy isn’t ready? He is recovering from season ending surgery and in his first season must match the level of play Darnold exhibited in 2024, that is a tall order to fill for a second year QB. In the end, the Vikings will have a tough decision to make this off-season and regardless of what they do there will be questions if it's the right decision but what else is new, it's the NFL!